Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Q&A - 25/11


As unbelievable as it seems, Central American parents are sending their children [to the US] [Also] In many cases the children flee on their own accord without any guardian.

A decade ago US Border Patrol agents apprehended only several hundred unaccompanied children per year. Over the last nine months they have caught nearly 50,000. Official estimates project the capture rate to reach 10,000 per month by this fall. Those numbers actually hide the enormity of the problem because historically the problem was largely restricted to Mexican children who could be immediately returned to Mexico. During the last couple of years, the majority of growth has come from children from Central American countries [..]

The underlying cause for this mass dangerous migration is the US’s war on drugs [..].

Demand for cocaine in the United States (which, unlike that in Europe, is fed through Central America), combined with the ultimately futile war on drugs, has led to the upsurge in violence. It is American consumers who are financing the drug gangs and, to a large extent, American gun merchants who are arming them. So failing American policies help beget failed states in the neighbourhood.


Failed policies cause migration then more failed policies are mulled over to try to "stop" the influx of people, which is merely the symptom of the problem not the cause. IMO US needs to legalize drugs and stop persecuting and criminalizing this behavior.

This option is not pondered because according to psychologist Clotaire Rapaille US cultural tug-of-war is between "prohibition" and "letting go". In their cultural mind ppl are torn apart between these two extremes, and feel constantly pullled to one end or the other - many problems are perceived through this one dimensional lense causing people to see a 'tradeoff' in a subject where rationally, there exists none.

On Iraq, US politicians and, to a certain extent, the public felt the need to "let go", "let it all rip" (after 9/11). Then the pendulum swings, another administration comes in to "contain self". Earlier in history, there was a period literally called prohibition that ended up backfiring just like the current war on drugs. There is the 60s generation / baby boomers who generally wanted to be "free", then pendulum swings again, in comes the conservative backlash in politics.

According to Rapaille cultural imprints are below intellect but are stronger then rational thought. For policy making this order needs to be switched, in US as well as in other places.

Q&A - 21/5

Question How do you empirically prove interest rates do not cause increase or decrease in GDP growth? There is a test for that Data ,...