Thursday, March 19, 2015

Q&A - 19/3

Link

[G]etting eco-friendly hydrogen is still a bit of a challenge. Right now, a lot of hydrogen is produced through mixing steam and natural gas [but that method is not so green..] A new study published [..] announces the development of a transparent film that uses energy from the sun to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen, without some of the dangerous side effects inherent in the process.

Sweet

Clean oxygen through sun energy! Awesome.

Analyst

When [a certain pattern] occurs, we noticed [a certain stock] went up 6 out of 9 times. So there is a 66% chance the next time [the same pattern] occurs the stock will go up. This stock could be invested in, during these times.

Do that and you will lose your shirt

This "analyst" clearly does not know statistics. If u look at the 95% confidence interval of that ratio,

x=6.;n=9.;p=(x+2)/(n+4); z = 1.96
print p + np.array([-1,+1])*z*np.sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)


The result is [ 0.30  0.93], so the low percentage is 30%. The sound investment strategy would look at this number, not the higher one, or the average. If you go by that number, there is no clear connection between the said pattern and the said "increase".

Question

Why do you keep suggesting an INTJ for prez? Do they know everything?

No

But this is the right temparament for the job. This is a decisive Rational who is not afraid to change their mind, and is "creative enough" to make a difference. Are they always right? Hell no. Look at B. Gates talking about evil AI and so forth.. he clearly doesn't know what the f is going on in this space, not in detail, but, (and this is key) the action an INTJ would take for that view would not be insane, it would be something tangible, reasonable, and once they realize they are wrong, they can course correct immediately. BG again, he wrote a book about the future (1995), a year later Internet became huge which was not predicted in the book. M$ course corrected.

Everyone knows the Keynes quote about "changing his mind when necessary"; this is a good advice overall of course, and more pressing / in line with NTJ's strategy of thinking/acting. They grok the idea, the tech in a way that is sufficient for them to commit to an action. The idea could be wrong (more often than not, it is right). Rinse and repeat.

Grokking tech at a sufficient level is a helpful skill. I heard Gates talk about a mathematical method called MCMC once [geek] which allows statisticians to sample from complex distributions, and calculate multidimensional integrals [/geek]. He says he learned about it from researchers in biology (during his philantrophy work I am sure), most likely in the context of calculating the trajectory of outbreaks so forth. The level at which he talked about it was pretty detailed, for an outsider to the field at least.. So he hears about this method, and sort of got the "geek vibe" of that, internalized it, and now he knows a problem area, the general things the method can solve, and at a level at which he can talk about it to others, use it to make decisions, etc. Being an INTJ, if he wanted to he could dig in and grok the shit completely, but this level is fine too, and very useful. The INTJ does this really, really well. This combo happens to be an immensely useful skill IMO for a tech CEO, any CEO, and now, the Presidency. Cuz in this day and age, tech drives all major social change right?

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