Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Greece/EU

Ran some numbers on Greece/EU negotations, using Predictioneer's Game format,

     Stakeholder  Clout  Position  Salience
0         Greece    100        40       100
10           USA     30        60       100
1            IMF     20        70       100
2        Juncker     10        80       100
3        Germany    100       100        80
4         France     70       100       100
5   Dijsselbloem     70       100        40
6           Tusk     70       100        40
7          Italy     50       100       100
8            ECB     20       100        70
9          Spain     20       100       100 
mean voter 82
weighted mode 100.0

The positions are,

0 Debt Relief, No Reform
30 Debt Relief, Half Reform
60 Debt Relief, Full Reform
80 Debt Relief Soon, Full Reform
100 No Debt Relief, Full Reform


Salience is how much an actor cares about a decision. I calculate mean voter position 83 and weighted median voter position is 100 from this -- the final outcome being somewhere btw those numbers, which contains reform in all cases, and, very unlikely but, some debt relief in near future. Juncker apparenty dangled this concession in front of Tsipras, debt relief "sometime this year" as a last-minute effort to salvage some deal last week, but was declined (reportedly Juncker was rebuked from the EU side for this action). It is clear T. does not want spending cuts / programs imposed on himself / his government.

The input data is based on my impression of the situation, others might have different ideas. Also, da masta processes this data as part of a repeated game in which he finds the optimum point for all parties involved, across all dyads, taking into account whether actors are hawks, doves, passives, etc. He can introduce "shocks" by sometimes randomly altering some salience values, or dropping actors out of the game to see if the optimum point is "stable", if these changes effect the final outcome [1]. But my guess is in this case a repeated game calculation would not make much difference.

Notebook

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[1] Da masta says he had to introduce this trick after a project he did analyzing Clinton's Healthcare reform bill and failed to foresee one scenario, he has since fixed the problem. The details can be found in  Predictioneer's Game.