Monday, July 6, 2015

Q&A - 6/7

Twitter User

But why can't there be debt relief for Greece now?

Timing seemed to be the issue

Nearly every article I'd read on this subject would state somewhere in the text that "everyone knows there will be certain amount of debt relief at some point in the future" (let's not forget, there was already a debt relief shortly after the crisis started). The issue was when. IMO further relief, bring the debt down to, say 100 billion euros would be hard to sell at EU capitals, especially in Bundestag, so this issue was deferred. It seems relief would be easier to sell once Greece reformed and started to grow again. Then Syriza came in, EU wondered if Tsipras was serious about reforms, then he goes and hires back the gov employees who were let go before his administration [1], then ...  your credibility as a reformer takes a hit at that point. It hardens "the other side" on other issues, bcz they don't see their counterpart at the same wavelength.

Question

So was Varoufakis wrong?

The deal on him..

.. is that his psychology was probably unsuited for his job. His profile shows he is what we call a Mellow Meadow -- these people have a subconcious feeling of having been wronged, they live in a persistent state of a victim, and their growth path is in getting out of this victimized feeling, and also, look at things conceptually. An MM in the negative is a very confused person, always giving up, their mind wondering from topic to topic, they have a hard time focusing, there could even be substance abuse problems. Surely V is not entirely at this negative extreme, this is a grown man, according to his background he became an academic (a perfect job for an MM, it would help to focus the mind), I am sure he grappled with hard things in life, did not give up, etc.

But we are talking about mega scale issues here and not many people are built to cope with this shit. The scrutiny, stress, responsibility will pull a person's character apart in unseemly ways, and will expose the tiniest crack in a man's demeanor. Even positives can start working against you, i.e. an MM should not be giving up, conceptualizing, but if this is done at the extreme, MM is always fighting, for no reason, conceptualizing, but in the wrong direction.

Question

But people gave mandate to do ______

They didn't give mandate for shit

Time for Change model shows people vote based on 3 variables, always judging the incumbent, not the new guy. This is very smart of them actually -- they always vote on something they have the most information on. So no growth, no popularity, it's more likely the incumbent is kicked to the curb. "Times are tough, get me whoever is next" -- that is the general feeling.

The public does not vote on issues per se. In US Republicans usually lower taxes, Democrats usually raise them - when one or the other is elected, it is not a mandate to lower or raise taxes. It simply means popularity, gdp growth, two terms variables were in the negative for the incumbent party.

Let's restate the obvious here: the system is representative. People do not meddle in governance, everyone has their job, and it works as long as the rulers don't screw the pooch. If they don't, there aren't too many surprises, everyone is happy. That also means rulers cannot overburden people with unnecessary choices... Like "you choose if I put a hat on, or not".. Or "should I say ___ to country X, or ___?" If rulers frequently overburden their populace, that will work against their popularity. They lose the office. If this happens all the time, well then, we'll start thinking other ways to skin this cat - won't we? 

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[1] Why does leftism imply statism in some people's minds, I'll never understand.

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