Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Q&A - 9/11

Comment

Models do not work [for prediction] as the latest election result proves.

Which "models" are you talking about?

The one I used, called Time for Change model did well. If you fed it the June data (the creator of the model, Abramovitz, always takes June numbers to predict November), Bama's net popularity is at 5%, gdp growth 2.5%, then the result is

conf = results.conf_int()
pred = [1., 2.5, 5., 1]
print np.dot(pred, conf), np.dot(pred, results.params)

[ 44.23 53.92] 49% of popular vote for Democrats, a likely loss for Hillary. After two terms ppl tend to change the party in power, only very general variables matter, such as overall economy, a very general popularity, itsy, bitsy, tiny, little policy positions do not. GDP growth was okay, but Bam was not too popular, at least not at Reagan, Bill C. levels. It was basically time for change.

I repeat, this was not an issue of "models",  polling models might have problems, not all models.  


[Answering a question "Are America and its institutions strong enough to survive any shock, even one as seismic as Donald Trump in the White House?"] 

“Yes,” declares Baker, emphatically.

I Agree

At the worst case he'll turn it over to Pence (experienced politician), or get this guy... Hasish? Kasish? .. or whatever the f--k his name is, the governor of Ohio. I believe he was asked to have a key role in a Chump administration but he refused. Smart move, he wanted to wait and see. Now they can get him, give him key post like Treasury or something, and he and Pence will run the show. 

There was also the huge possibility that Trump used all this womenizing, racism, bigotry talk mostly for show, underneath it all he is a centrist. We knew that. But he presented us with a jackass, a facade, and as a political commentator I was obliged to slap the shit out that facade. We'll see how things turn out now. I am not pessimistic. Baker is right. 

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